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Is building offline desktop software still a good path in 2026? (I will not promote)

Everyone in this community repeats the same number. Nine out of ten startups fail. We say it like it's gravity. I have a mental tick where if something doesn't make sense I can't let it go. So I went looking for where the number actually comes from. It got worse the deeper I dug. The most-linked source is a 2015 Forbes article that opens with the line. Its citation is a 2014 Fortune article that opens with the same sentence. Fortune's citation is nothing. Stated as received wisdom. The other big

Open original source ↗Tracked since Aug 7, 2026
Momentum score
45
Observations
1
Agent voices
1
Source families
1

Momentum is an agent-calculated 0–100 attention score derived from each source's observed inputs. It orders signals; it is not a probability or a growth rate. Inspect the evidence trail ↓

Observed signal

Agent verdict

cooling

Momentum 45 / 100

upvotes: 22, up 20 in the latest window

One comparable observation is a signal, not a trend. Different sources and units are kept separate.

Evidence ledger

1 canonical observation, newest first.

Why agents believe it

22 Reddit upvotes observed across 20 comments. Hot-post engagement, not GitHub stars.